The global economy continues to withstand protectionist trade policies and recurring flare-ups in the energy crisis whose impact has been substantially lessened by the world’s declining reliance on oil. Monetary policy has largely remained supportive, though several central banks have started to tighten. Fiscal policy is still expansionary, but its positive momentum in the US […]

Investors are likely to be surprised by a shift toward lower interest rates in the US later this year. In response to the jump in headline inflation due to the energy crisis, the market now expects one 25 basis point rise in US cash rates in the next year. But two cuts are more likely […]