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The global economy continues to withstand protectionist trade policies and recurring flare-ups in the energy crisis whose impact has been substantially lessened by the world’s declining reliance on oil. Monetary policy has largely remained supportive, though several central banks have started to tighten. Fiscal policy is still expansionary, but its positive momentum in the US […]
Investors are likely to be surprised by a shift toward lower interest rates in the US later this year. In response to the jump in headline inflation due to the energy crisis, the market now expects one 25 basis point rise in US cash rates in the next year. But two cuts are more likely […]
Investing is littered with rules of thumb that feel reassuringly simple but consistently lead investors astray. Here we dismantle four of the most pervasive: including one hiding inside your index fund. Simple rules are appealing. Markets are unpredictable, choices are vast, and a clean formula cuts through the noise. The problem is that every investment […]
There is no universal portfolio. The right mix of assets depends entirely on who you are, what you need your money to do and when you need it to do it. Consider two investors of similar age and wealth. One is drawing income from investments to fund retirement. The other is compounding capital for an […]
You have spent years building your wealth carefully. Choosing who helps you protect it and to keep it supporting you deserves the same rigour. These questions will help you find the advisor who is genuinely right for you. 1. Does their advice fit how your life has evolved? The strategy for someone still accumulating looks […]
Resilient economic expansion is supported by reasonably strong employment conditions, softer inflation and lower interest rates. Services activity remains robust while manufacturing appears to be strengthening from weakness in the last two years. The impact of US tariffs has been relatively mild, offset by artificial intelligence infrastructure spend and easier credit conditions. However, the consumption […]
Remarkable cross currents are creating turbulence in global economies. The rewiring of international trade relationships and corporate supply chains increases uncertainties and creates opportunities for investors. Global activity is slowing but still maintaining a decent pace. Purchase managers indices reflect stronger services than manufacturing activity. Tight labour markets and easier policy settings are supporting consumer […]
Global growth is likely to slow considerably in the second half of 2025. Heightened geopolitical tensions, tariffs and policy uncertainty is dragging sentiment, investment and hiring plans. Consumption in the US will be weighed by the lagged impact of tighter monetary policy and drain on real wages from tariff-lifted goods prices and fewer job opportunities. […]
Trade war will intensify the global growth slowdown this year and next as supply chains are disrupted, consumer and business confidence are dragged and inflation jumps at least temporarily. Mild US recession is now more likely. China to US container loads have already dropped precipitously. Various products will be in short supply, at least temporarily. […]
Global activity continues a path of slower economic growth with inflation and interest rates settling above average levels for the decade prior to the pandemic. Unusually high levels of geopolitical and political volatility are unlikely to alter this progression. Consumption will be assisted by high levels of employment, rising wages, lower borrowing rates and rising […]
Global activity has been surprisingly resilient in the face of higher interest rates, post-pandemic supply disruptions and crises in Ukraine and the Middle East. A more obvious slowing should be evidenced in coming months. Restrictive monetary policy is likely to be removed at only a steady pace, and at different paces internationally. A more supportive […]
Positive returns comfortably ahead of inflation can be expected over the longer term but full valuations in some areas, despite recent selloffs, and likely slowing in economic activity encourage a cautious stance for now. Economic growth this year has been stronger than expected in most regions. There should be a more significant slowing in the […]
Activity has surprised on the upside. Growth is fading, but improving consumer sentiment, stable joblessness and reinvigorating housing markets imply mild slowdown rather than deep recession. There is a possibility of a renewed inflation surge later this year requiring additional rate hikes which would be more destructive economically. However, a mild disinflationary path is more […]
Global growth is slowing as the rebound from pandemic disruptions fades. The US economy was surprisingly strong through 2023, helped by fiscal support and consumers bolstered by plentiful work opportunities, high pandemic savings and the positive wealth effect from higher house prices. Now the most indebted sectors are being bitten by interest rates kept high […]
Activity is slowing, more volatile and with starkly different characteristics across regions. Growth has surprised on the upside this year, but signs of slowing are becoming more evident. Conditions should be far weaker next year as delayed constraints from higher interest rates and less generous fiscal spending weigh in consumption. Manufacturing has been weak for […]
