Challenge in finding value encourages a further shift up the quality spectrum
Activity has surprised on the upside. Growth is fading, but improving consumer sentiment, stable joblessness and reinvigorating housing markets imply mild slowdown rather than deep recession. There is a possibility of a renewed inflation surge later this year...
Shift to lower rates unsettling markets
Global growth is slowing as the rebound from pandemic disruptions fades. The US economy was surprisingly strong through 2023, helped by fiscal support and consumers bolstered by plentiful work opportunities, high pandemic savings and the positive wealth effect from...
Navigating opportunities in volatile markets
Activity is slowing, more volatile and with starkly different characteristics across regions. Growth has surprised on the upside this year, but signs of slowing are becoming more evident. Conditions should be far weaker next year as delayed constraints from higher...
Surprising economic resilience adds to rates pressures
Global economic activity has held up remarkably well in 2023. Tighter monetary policy has been offset by improving supply chain efficiency as conditions normalise from pandemic and Ukraine war shocks. Interest-rate sensitive spending has been hampered by the...
Strong employment shows rates pressure far from being released
International activity is slowing significantly and is likely to remain subdued in the next several years. To quell demand, monetary policy is likely to be persistently tighter than might have been expected given strength in employment and services, which is less...
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